🚨 Alert #4801 Wed Sep-16 14:50:54
ASML and TSMC reported strong Q2 2026 earnings with significant revenue growth and robust backlogs driven by AI-related demand for advanced logic and memory chips.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | ASML | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> long ASML (earnings: ASML and TSMC reported strong Q2 2026 earnings with significant revenue growth and robust backlogs driven by AI-related demand for advanced logic and memory chips.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | inferred long: materiality 65 below floor 75 → close -0.52% |
| S4 | ASML | ● enter | ▲ long | overnight drift: long ASML at close, exit next close (earnings: ASML and TSMC reported strong Q2 2026 earnings with significant revenue growth and robust backlogs driven by AI-related demand for advanced logic and memory chips.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | ASML | ▲ long | 1 | 1609.50 | 1596.70 | -12.80 | closed |
| S4 | ASML | ▲ long | 1 | 1597.97 | 1629.94 | +31.97 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASML S1 | +0.40% | -1.46% | Signal: Ambiguous-to-weak — the bullish earnings call matched the pre-entry pop (+1.07% off prev close), but after entry the stock only managed +0.40% before rolling over, so the repricing thesis had little fuel left. Timing: This is the dominant factor. Entry at 1609.5 was ~1% above prior close and came right after a -1.28% 30-minute fade — the move had already happened, and the trade bought the top of the pop. Exit: The -0.80% realized loss sits between the +0.40% best and -1.46% worst unrealized, so the exit was middling — it gave back the small available upside but avoided the full drawdown. Bluntly: a late entry chasing an already-priced move, not an exit failure. |
| ASML S4 | +3.73% | +0.10% | Signal: right. The long call on post-earnings drift worked — price rose ~2.0% from entry and never went meaningfully underwater (worst unrealized +0.10%). Timing: mostly fine. Only +1.07% had moved since prev close at decision time (and the last 30m was negative), so the bulk of the move came after entry; the small entry slippage above prev close (1592.73 → 1597.97) cost ~0.3%. Exit: the dominant factor. The mechanical next-close exit captured +2.0% against a peak unrealized of +3.73% — roughly half the available move was given back before the scheduled exit; the data doesn't show when the peak occurred, so whether the drift faded or reversed intraday can't be determined here. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.