verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long MU (earnings: Nvidia's comments on sustained memory price increases signal a positive outlook for Micron ahead of its fiscal Q4 earnings report.)
overnight drift: long MU at close, exit next close (earnings: Nvidia's comments on sustained memory price increases signal a positive outlook for Micron ahead of its fiscal Q4 earnings report.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 long lost to mat 65 short (decision 19332) for S4 MU exiting 2026-09-17]
Signal: Wrong within the holding window — the bullish call was followed by a net decline (entry 933.13 → exit 923.50, -1.03%), with only a brief +0.70% in favor before rolling over. Timing: The stock was up just +0.81% from prior close at decision time, so the anticipated move had not meaningfully occurred pre-entry; this wasn't a case of chasing an exhausted move. Exit: The exit at -1.03% sits closer to the worst unrealized (-1.55%) than the best (+0.70%), so the exit gave back the small available upside but did avoid the full drawdown. The dominant factor is signal failure: the bullish thesis simply didn't materialize while the trade was open (whether it played out later, e.g., post-earnings, isn't determinable from this data).
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
