🚨 Alert #4788 Wed Sep-16 14:00:43
The NHTSA has issued a Special Order requiring Tesla to prove under oath that its driverless Cybercab complies with federal safety standards, escalating regulatory pressure and threatening legal action.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSLA | ● enter | ▼ short | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short TSLA (regulatory: The NHTSA has issued a Special Order requiring Tesla to prove under oath that its driverless Cybercab complies with federal safety standards, escalating regulatory pressure and threatening legal action.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | - | ○ skip | — | no peer in universe |
| S4 | TSLA | ● enter | ▼ short | overnight drift: short TSLA at close, exit next close (regulatory: The NHTSA has issued a Special Order requiring Tesla to prove under oath that its driverless Cybercab complies with federal safety standards, escalating regulatory pressure and threatening legal action.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSLA | ▼ short | 2 | 356.79 | 357.63 | -1.68 | closed |
| S4 | TSLA | ▼ short | 2 | 357.75 | 366.98 | -18.46 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA S1 | +0.46% | -2.26% | Signal: Wrong within the holding window — the bearish call didn't materialize; the stock traded as much as 2.26% against the short and closed the trade higher than entry. Timing: No evidence of chasing — price was roughly flat at entry (+0.23% vs. prev close), so the trade wasn't entered after a move had already occurred. Exit: The exit was actually decent relative to what was available — the -0.24% realized loss gave back the brief +0.46% favorable move but avoided most of the -2.26% max drawdown. The dominant factor is the signal: the predicted bearish reaction to the NHTSA news simply didn't happen during the trade (whether it played out later is not settled by this data). |
| TSLA S4 | +0.02% | -4.53% | Signal was wrong — that's the dominant factor. The short predicted downside from regulatory pressure, but TSLA rallied ~2.6% against the position, with the trade never meaningfully in the money (best unrealized only +0.02%). Timing wasn't the issue in the sense of a missed move — the anticipated decline simply never occurred; the modest +0.23% pre-entry drift doesn't indicate the news was already priced in one way or the other, so that's unsettled from this data. The mechanical next-close exit actually salvaged something, closing at roughly -2.6% versus a worst unrealized of -4.53%. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.