overnight drift: long TSM at close, exit next close (regulatory: Expert analysis confirms US export controls have effectively restricted China's high-end AI chip production, reinforcing TSMC's dominant market share and ASML's critical equipment monopoly.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 long lost to mat 65 long (decision 19364) for S4 TSM exiting 2026-09-17]
Signal/timing failed; exit was fine. The bullish thesis never materialized in the holding window — the trade was up at most +0.04% after entry, so there was essentially nothing to capture. The stock was already +0.86% on the day at decision time (and the fill at 419.58 was ~1.35% above prev close), suggesting the entry chased a move that had largely happened; whether the thesis is right on a longer horizon can't be settled from this data. The exit at -0.54% actually avoided the worst drawdown (-1.29%), so the dominant factor is entering after the news-driven pop with no subsequent follow-through — not exit execution.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
