🚨 Alert #4752 Tue Sep-15 20:40:35
ASML raised its full-year revenue guidance and signaled plans to increase 2028 EUV lithography system production capacity beyond 110 units due to strong demand.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | ASML | ○ skip | — | verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> long ASML (guidance: ASML raised its full-year revenue guidance and signaled plans to increase 2028 EUV lithography system production capacity beyond 110 units due to strong demand.) [skipped: duplicate theme — already holding S1 long ASML exiting 2026-09-15] → close -0.18% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | TSM | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for TSM → close -0.05% |
| S4 | ASML | ● enter | ▲ long | overnight drift: long ASML at close, exit next close (guidance: ASML raised its full-year revenue guidance and signaled plans to increase 2028 EUV lithography system production capacity beyond 110 units due to strong demand.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S4 | ASML | ▲ long | 1 | 1590.69 | 1596.78 | +6.09 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASML S4 | +3.14% | -0.29% | Signal: Right — the stock continued higher after entry (best unrealized +3.14%), consistent with the positive guidance thesis. Timing: Partially late — the stock was already up ~1% from prior close at entry (fill 1590.69 vs prev close 1575.15), so some of the news reaction was absorbed before the position opened, though most of the eventual move was still ahead. Exit (dominant factor): The exit is the problem — the trade captured +0.38% (+6.09 USD) out of a peak +3.14% unrealized gain with minimal downside risk (-0.29% worst), meaning the mechanical next-close exit gave back roughly seven-eighths of the available move. The data doesn't show intraday price paths, so whether the peak occurred before or near the close can't be determined here. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.