Mon Aug-31 19:03:42
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #457 Wed Jul-22 15:50:41
Oil prices rise another 3%, while Wall Street drifts in mixed trading
Super Micro Computer stock surged 21.4% after the company guided for stronger profit margins than previously forecast, despite expecting revenue at the low end of its range.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary SMCI | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +24.84% | +2.10% | 28.58 | 32.24 | |
| AMD | · unclear | PRICED | +1.28% | +0.21% | 527.05 | 560.00 | |
| TSM | · unclear | FRESH | -0.87% | +0.21% | 412.25 | 424.96 | |
| AVGO | · unclear | REPRICING | +0.54% | +0.76% | 377.57 | 403.02 | |
| peer NVDA | · unclear | FRESH | +0.27% | +0.32% | 204.56 | 214.40 | |
| MU | · unclear | REPRICING | -0.19% | -0.55% | 924.99 | 983.29 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | SMCI | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +24.84% · Δ 30m +2.10% · px 31.83 (prev 25.50) → close -3.94% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for NVDA → close +2.05% |
| S4 | SMCI | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +24.84% · Δ 30m +2.10% · px 31.83 (prev 25.50) |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.