verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> long MU (other: Micron Technology announced a record bonus package for Taiwan workers to avert a potential strike that could disrupt HBM and DRAM supply chains.)
overnight drift: long MU at close, exit next close (other: Micron Technology announced a record bonus package for Taiwan workers to avert a potential strike that could disrupt HBM and DRAM supply chains.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 long lost to mat 85 long (decision 17960) for S4 MU exiting 2026-09-14]
Signal: wrong. The bullish repricing call never materialized — the trade was underwater essentially the entire time it was open (best unrealized only -0.07%), so the predicted direction simply didn't play out over the holding period. Timing: the stock was already up +1.06% from prior close at decision time and the fill (987.91) sat above that, so the entry chased whatever pop the news produced — though whether more upside "should" have followed can't be settled from this data alone. Exit: the -1.24% realized loss sits between the best (-0.07%) and worst (-1.99%) unrealized, so the exit was middling but there was almost nothing available to capture anyway. Dominant factor: bad signal — the position never went green.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
