verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long META (product: Meta officially launched its new AI assistant Muse, integrated across its platforms, causing its stock to rise while the broader tech sector declined.)
overnight drift: long META at close, exit next close (product: Meta officially launched its new AI assistant Muse, integrated across its platforms, causing its stock to rise while the broader tech sector declined.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 long lost to mat 65 short (decision 17732) for S4 META exiting 2026-09-11]
Signal was wrong — that's the dominant factor. The rationale claimed the stock was rising on the Muse launch, but price context at decision time already showed META down 0.84% from prior close, contradicting the "FRESH" bullish premise; after entry the trade never got more than +0.13% favorable while going -0.92% against. The exit at -0.62% gave back most of the range but there was essentially nothing to capture — max upside available was 13 bps — so exit quality is secondary to a directional call that the tape didn't support. Whether the news itself was stale or misdescribed can't be settled from this data, but the observed price action never matched the entry thesis.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
