Mon Aug-31 19:02:42
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🚨 Alert #436 Wed Jul-22 14:11:42
Nvidia-Led AI Supercycle Accelerates As Taiwan Exports Hit Record - Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE:TSM), NVID
Taiwan's record surge in export orders, driven primarily by AI-related semiconductor demand, confirms the acceleration of the AI supercycle benefiting Nvidia and TSMC.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary NVDA | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +1.07% | +0.21% | 204.56 | 214.40 | |
| SMCI | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +20.56% | -0.94% | 28.58 | 32.24 | |
| MU | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +7.69% | +0.11% | 924.99 | 983.29 | |
| peer AMD | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +5.23% | -0.02% | 527.05 | 560.00 | |
| TSM | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +3.05% | +0.07% | 412.25 | 424.96 | |
| ASML | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +1.48% | -0.17% | 1762.04 | 1815.00 | |
| AVGO | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.33% | -0.03% | 377.57 | 403.02 | |
| QCOM | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | +0.30% | +0.56% | 169.25 | 178.13 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +1.07% · Δ 30m +0.21% · px 205.46 (prev 203.28) → close +3.24% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AMD | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +5.23% · Δ 30m -0.02% · px 529.92 (prev 503.57) → close +3.89% |
| S4 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +1.07% · Δ 30m +0.21% · px 205.46 (prev 203.28) |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.