Sun Oct-18 15:16:56
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #4319 Wed Sep-09 17:41:14
Exports hit record on 41% rise
Taiwan's monthly exports hit a record high driven by strong AI semiconductor and server demand, signaling robust activity for major manufacturers like TSMC.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary TSM | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.94% | +0.15% | 432.00 | 438.98 | |
| AMD | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +3.56% | +0.15% | 498.77 | 525.48 | |
| MU | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +2.14% | -0.09% | 993.89 | 1040.09 | |
| AVGO | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -2.07% | +0.10% | 359.66 | 366.48 | |
| SMCI | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | -1.94% | +0.66% | 38.74 | 40.12 | |
| ASML | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | -1.44% | +0.07% | 1715.82 | 1748.70 | |
| QCOM | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | +1.44% | +0.50% | 173.30 | 180.29 | |
| peer NVDA | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.70% | +0.06% | 223.47 | 225.87 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ○ skip | — | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long TSM (other: Taiwan's monthly exports hit a record high driven by strong AI semiconductor and server demand, signaling robust activity for major manufacturers like TSMC.) [skipped: signal conflict — wanted long, conflict-hold — mat 65 ties incumbent S1 short TSM, incumbent held (strictly higher materiality required to flip)] → close +0.06% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | inferred long: materiality 65 below floor 75 → close -0.22% |
| S4 | TSM | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: long TSM at close, exit next close (other: Taiwan's monthly exports hit a record high driven by strong AI semiconductor and server demand, signaling robust activity for major manufacturers like TSMC.) [skipped at close: s4_alignment — wanted long, TSM -0.88% vs prev close 439.05999755859375 (mark 435.20001220703125), order not placed] |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.