overnight drift: long NVDA at close, exit next close (guidance: Nvidia provided strong fiscal 2028 revenue guidance projecting 70% growth, citing sustained AI demand despite supply constraints from TSMC and memory shortages.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 95 long lost to mat 95 long (decision 17224) for S4 NVDA exiting 2026-09-10]
Signal: Wrong over the holding period — the bullish call on the "FRESH" guidance never materialized; NVDA fell ~0.93% while the trade was open. Timing: The data doesn't show the move had already happened — price was actually down 0.42% from prior close at entry, so the trade wasn't chasing; whether the guidance news was truly fresh can't be verified from what's here. Exit: Poor but nearly irrelevant — the exit at -0.93% was near the worst unrealized (-0.97%), yet the best available was only +0.13%, so there was essentially nothing to capture. The dominant factor is a bad signal: the predicted bullish move simply never showed up.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
