🚨 Alert #4263 Wed Sep-09 13:00:58
Apple unveiled its first foldable iPhone during CEO John Ternus's debut keynote event, entering a market previously dominated by Samsung and Huawei.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AAPL | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long AAPL (product: Apple unveiled its first foldable iPhone during CEO John Ternus's debut keynote event, entering a market previously dominated by Samsung and Huawei.) [closed early: netted out by outranking S3 short AAPL decision 17291] |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | GOOGL | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for GOOGL → close -0.11% |
| S4 | AAPL | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: long AAPL at close, exit next close (product: Apple unveiled its first foldable iPhone during CEO John Ternus's debut keynote event, entering a market previously dominated by Samsung and Huawei.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 75 long lost to mat 85 short (decision 17432) for S4 AAPL exiting 2026-09-10] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AAPL | ▲ long | 3 | 315.73 | 312.62 | -9.33 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL S1 | +0.74% | -1.13% | Signal: Wrong over the holding period — the bullish call on the foldable-iPhone news saw AAPL fall ~1% from entry, though the trade did reach +0.74% unrealized at some point, so the direction wasn't immediately invalidated. Timing: No evidence of chasing — price was only -0.34% from the prior close at decision time, so the move hadn't already happened by entry. Exit: The exit was mechanical (netted out against an opposing short decision, not a thesis-driven close) and landed near the worst of the range: -0.98% realized versus -1.13% worst / +0.74% best, capturing almost the full available downside. The dominant factor is the failed signal — price went the wrong way — with the netting-forced exit locking in nearly the maximum loss; whether the thesis would have recovered after the forced close is not determinable from this data. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.