verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short MU (other: South Korea announced a $576 billion investment plan for Samsung and SK Hynix to expand semiconductor and AI chip manufacturing capacity.) [skipped: signal conflict — wanted short, conflict-hold — mat 65 ties incumbent S1 long MU, incumbent held (strictly higher materiality required to flip)] → close -1.57%
overnight drift: short MU at close, exit next close (other: South Korea announced a $576 billion investment plan for Samsung and SK Hynix to expand semiconductor and AI chip manufacturing capacity.)
Signal was wrong — that's the dominant factor. The short thesis (rival capacity expansion bearish for MU) didn't play out: the stock rallied ~2.6% against the position, and the best it ever showed was +0.93% versus a worst of -4.14%. Timing compounded it: the fill at 999.76 was already ~1.7% below the prior close of 1016.59, so a meaningful down-move had occurred between decision and entry, leaving less downside to capture even if the thesis had held. The exit was actually decent relative to what was available — the -2.59% realized loss sits well inside the -4.14% worst unrealized, so the close-to-close exit rule limited damage rather than causing it.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
