Sun Oct-18 15:12:22
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #4218 Tue Sep-08 17:01:00
China hits Japanese chip chemical with 99.2% duty
China has imposed provisional anti-dumping duties of up to 99.2% on Japanese dichlorosilane, a critical chemical used in semiconductor fabrication, potentially disrupting supply chains for major chip manufacturers.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary TSM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +3.02% | +0.53% | 433.93 | 441.87 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +6.74% | +0.26% | 481.98 | 512.14 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +3.67% | -1.05% | 169.80 | 185.50 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +3.42% | +0.42% | 1747.38 | 1782.90 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +3.25% | -0.59% | 359.90 | 372.30 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +3.14% | -1.25% | 39.48 | 41.38 | |
| peer NVDA | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.78% | -0.29% | 225.27 | 233.21 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +0.77% | +0.77% | 943.57 | 1037.75 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +3.02% · Δ 30m +0.53% · px 441.60 (prev 428.64) → close -0.51% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | inferred short move already absorbed: NVDA -1.78% since prev close → close -0.38% |
| S4 | TSM | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +3.02% · Δ 30m +0.53% · px 441.60 (prev 428.64) |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.