Sun Oct-18 16:02:59
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🚨 Alert #4116 Fri Sep-04 18:30:44
ASML Rockets 4% as TSMC's Tool Hunger Nearly Doubles
ASML shares rose 4% after TSMC signaled a near-doubling of equipment demand and ASML reported strong quarterly earnings with raised full-year sales guidance.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary ASML | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +3.56% | -0.42% | 1673.16 | 1720.30 | |
| MU | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +4.30% | -0.63% | 964.97 | 1016.70 | |
| AMD | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +3.84% | -0.65% | 460.18 | 477.75 | |
| TSM | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +2.32% | -0.35% | 419.91 | 429.11 | |
| peer NVDA | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | +1.00% | -0.38% | 229.50 | 234.52 | |
| AVGO | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.66% | -0.42% | 353.82 | 361.62 | |
| QCOM | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.34% | -0.24% | 167.12 | 170.73 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | ASML | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +3.56% · Δ 30m -0.42% · px 1704.85 (prev 1646.19) → close +0.57% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> long NVDA (earnings: ASML shares rose 4% after TSMC signaled a near-doubling of equipment demand and ASML reported strong quarterly earnings with raised full-year sales guidance.) [skipped: duplicate theme — already holding S1 long NVDA exiting 2026-09-04] → close -0.01% |
| S4 | ASML | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +3.56% · Δ 30m -0.42% · px 1704.85 (prev 1646.19) |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.