🚨 Alert #403 Tue Jul-21 20:00:56
China's Cyberspace Administration approved Apple Intelligence for launch in China following partnerships with Alibaba and Baidu, driving Apple shares to a record high.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AAPL | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> buy AAPL (regulatory: China's Cyberspace Administration approved Apple Intelligence for launch in China following partnerships with Alibaba and Baidu, driving Apple shares to a record high.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for MSFT → close -0.10% |
| S4 | AAPL | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: buy AAPL at close, exit next close (regulatory: China's Cyberspace Administration approved Apple Intelligence for launch in China following partnerships with Alibaba and Baidu, driving Apple shares to a record high.) [skipped at close: duplicate — already holding S4 buy AAPL exiting 2026-07-22] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AAPL | ▲ long | 3 | 328.08 | 327.73 | -1.05 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL S1 | +0.09% | -0.16% | Retrospective: The entry chased a "FRESH" regulatory headline after the stock had already hit a record high on that exact news — meaning the catalyst was fully priced in by the time the order filled. The outcome confirms this: the position never gained more than +0.09% and bled to a small loss, classic dead-money behavior from buying stale momentum. Improvement: Add a "priced-in" filter to the verdict logic — if the underlying has already moved more than ~1.5-2% (or made a new 52-week/all-time high) on the same catalyst before entry, downgrade FRESH to STALE and skip the trade, or require a pullback of X% from the news-spike high before entering. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.