🚨 Alert #393 Tue Jul-21 19:03:14
Apple is reportedly preparing to launch its first foldable iPhone, branded as iPhone Ultra, in September 2026 with a book-style design and Liquidmetal hinge technology.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AAPL | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> buy AAPL (product: Apple is reportedly preparing to launch its first foldable iPhone, branded as iPhone Ultra, in September 2026 with a book-style design and Liquidmetal hinge technology.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for MSFT → close -0.31% |
| S4 | AAPL | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: buy AAPL at close, exit next close (product: Apple is reportedly preparing to launch its first foldable iPhone, branded as iPhone Ultra, in September 2026 with a book-style design and Liquidmetal hinge technology.) [skipped at close: duplicate — already holding S4 buy AAPL exiting 2026-07-22] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AAPL | ▲ long | 3 | 327.55 | 327.70 | +0.45 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL S1 | +0.25% | -0.17% | The entry was based on speculative product news dated over a year out (a 2026 foldable launch), which has near-zero same-day price impact — and the outcome confirms it: the stock barely moved (+0.05%, max excursion ±0.25%), making the +$0.45 PnL noise, not signal. The "FRESH" verdict is doing no work here since freshness of a rumor doesn't equal tradeable catalyst strength. Concrete fix: add a catalyst-horizon filter to the entry rule — only trade product/launch news with an event date inside ~30 days, or require the verdict to include an expected-impact threshold (e.g., skip unless implied move > 1%) so FRESH-but-distant rumors get flagged as NO-TRADE. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.