Sun Oct-18 15:03:16
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #3922 Thu Sep-03 13:01:26
Netherlands moves 86 tonnes of gold from New York to London -- Is geopolitical risk rising?
Reports indicate the US government plans to pressure the Netherlands to ban ASML from selling chip-making machines to China, citing rising geopolitical tensions.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary ASML | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.80% | -0.43% | 1626.20 | 1659.83 | |
| AVGO | · unclear | PRICED | -3.62% | -0.58% | 340.52 | 358.96 | |
| QCOM | · unclear | REPRICING | -1.44% | -0.62% | 165.14 | 169.97 | |
| AMD | · unclear | FRESH | -0.82% | -0.29% | 444.32 | 459.53 | |
| MU | · unclear | FRESH | -0.80% | -0.25% | 927.46 | 959.36 | |
| TSM | · unclear | FRESH | -0.70% | -0.24% | 408.61 | 417.19 | |
| peer NVDA | · unclear | FRESH | -0.40% | -0.44% | 223.46 | 230.14 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | ASML | ○ skip | — | primary short move already absorbed: ASML -1.80% since prev close → close -0.55% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for NVDA → close +2.27% |
| S4 | ASML | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: short ASML at close, exit next close (regulatory: Reports indicate the US government plans to pressure the Netherlands to ban ASML from selling chip-making machines to China, citing rising geopolitical tensions.) [skipped at close: stale at close-fill — wanted short, verdict now PRICED (-2.34% since close, 473m after decision), order not placed] |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.