verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short AAPL (regulatory: Apple faces a $2.7 billion lawsuit in the UK from app developers alleging unfair advantages through its App Tracking Transparency policies.)
overnight drift: short AAPL at close, exit next close (regulatory: Apple faces a $2.7 billion lawsuit in the UK from app developers alleging unfair advantages through its App Tracking Transparency policies.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 short lost to mat 85 short (decision 15804) for S4 AAPL exiting 2026-09-04]
Signal: wrong. The bearish call failed — AAPL rose from 325.66 to 328.44 (+0.85%) while the trade was open, so the predicted direction simply didn't materialize. Timing: the move had not already happened at entry (price was only -0.40% off prior close and actually filled above it), so this wasn't a stale-signal problem. Exit: middling — a brief +0.40% unrealized gain existed but the -0.85% realized loss landed between the best and the -1.54% worst, so the exit gave up the small available profit but also avoided the maximum drawdown. The dominant factor is a bad signal: the lawsuit headline did not translate into downside during the holding period.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
