🚨 Alert #3876 Wed Sep-02 17:30:40
TSMC reported strong Q2 results with a 67.7% gross margin and announced significant global expansion plans including $265 billion in U.S. investment.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary TSM | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.37% | -0.15% | 408.80 | 416.35 | |
| peer NVDA | · unclear | PRICED | +4.48% | -0.17% | 216.34 | 227.58 | |
| QCOM | · unclear | REPRICING | +1.48% | -0.42% | 164.67 | 170.39 | |
| MU | · unclear | REPRICING | +1.35% | +0.11% | 920.00 | 957.10 | |
| SMCI | · unclear | FRESH | -0.83% | +0.01% | 35.78 | 37.74 | |
| ASML | · unclear | FRESH | +0.57% | -0.28% | 1652.15 | 1687.82 | |
| AMD | · unclear | FRESH | -0.47% | -0.32% | 453.18 | 462.14 | |
| AVGO | · unclear | FRESH | -0.23% | -0.47% | 348.79 | 375.22 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ○ skip | — | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long TSM (earnings: TSMC reported strong Q2 results with a 67.7% gross margin and announced significant global expansion plans including $265 billion in U.S. investment.) [skipped: duplicate theme — already holding S2 long TSM exiting 2026-09-02] → close +0.67% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for NVDA → close -1.31% |
| S4 | TSM | ● enter | ▲ long | overnight drift: long TSM at close, exit next close (earnings: TSMC reported strong Q2 results with a 67.7% gross margin and announced significant global expansion plans including $265 billion in U.S. investment.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S4 | TSM | ▲ long | 2 | 415.42 | 416.61 | +2.38 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSM S4 | +0.29% | -4.33% | Signal: Marginally right — the trade closed up +0.29%, but that's a trivial drift for a "strong earnings" catalyst, and the -4.33% worst unrealized shows the position spent time deeply against the thesis. Whether the earnings pop had already occurred before entry can't be confirmed from the data here (the decision-time context shows the stock slightly down, not extended, but there's no view of the prior day's move). Exit: Effectively optimal — the exit at +0.29% matched the best unrealized (+0.29%), so nothing available was left on the table. Dominant factor: Weak signal. The exit captured everything available, but "everything" was +0.29% against a -4.33% intraday drawdown — the predicted post-earnings drift essentially didn't materialize, and the small profit reflects luck in the recovery timing rather than a working edge. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.