🚨 Alert #387 Tue Jul-21 18:41:48
Apple briefly overtook Nvidia as the world's most valuable company during Friday trading, driven by investor preference for Apple's lighter AI spending and an HSBC upgrade, while Nvidia shares slipped.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AAPL | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> buy AAPL (other: Apple briefly overtook Nvidia as the world's most valuable company during Friday trading, driven by investor preference for Apple's lighter AI spending and an HSBC upgrade, while Nvidia shares slipped.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | - | ○ skip | — | no peer in universe |
| S4 | AAPL | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: buy AAPL at close, exit next close (other: Apple briefly overtook Nvidia as the world's most valuable company during Friday trading, driven by investor preference for Apple's lighter AI spending and an HSBC upgrade, while Nvidia shares slipped.) [skipped at close: duplicate — already holding S4 buy AAPL exiting 2026-07-22] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AAPL | ▲ long | 3 | 326.75 | 327.72 | +2.91 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL S1 | +0.50% | +0.03% | Entry vs. outcome: The "FRESH" verdict was generous — a market-cap milestone headline ("briefly overtook Nvidia") is a lagging, already-priced-in narrative, not a forward catalyst, and the trade behaved accordingly: a drift to +0.50% max and a scratch-level +0.30% exit. The trade never went underwater (worst +0.03%), so entry timing was fine; the problem is the signal had no juice. Concrete improvement: Tighten the FRESH classifier to exclude milestone/ranking headlines (e.g., "most valuable company," "overtakes X") unless paired with an actionable catalyst like the HSBC upgrade with a price target implying >2-3% upside — otherwise downgrade the verdict to STALE and skip. Alternatively, if you keep taking these low-conviction entries, add a take-profit rule near +0.5% since you captured only 60% of a small max favorable excursion. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.