🚨 Alert #386 Tue Jul-21 18:41:31
AMD shares rose 8% following the announcement of an expanded partnership with Microsoft to deploy AMD Helios Rackscale Solutions and EPYC CPUs on the Azure cloud platform.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AMD | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +7.95% · Δ 30m +0.32% · px 543.59 (prev 503.57) → close +0.11% |
| S2 | MSFT | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> buy MSFT (partnership: AMD shares rose 8% following the announcement of an expanded partnership with Microsoft to deploy AMD Helios Rackscale Solutions and EPYC CPUs on the Azure cloud platform.) |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +1.77% · Δ 30m +0.45% · px 206.87 (prev 203.28) → close +0.28% |
| S4 | AMD | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +7.95% · Δ 30m +0.32% · px 543.59 (prev 503.57) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S2 | MSFT | ▲ long | 2 | 399.44 | 397.95 | -2.98 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT S2 | +0.02% | -0.48% | Entry vs. outcome: The rationale was a second-hand read — the news was materially about AMD (which actually moved 8%), yet the strategy bought MSFT, the partner with far less earnings sensitivity to the deal. Predictably, MSFT barely moved (max favorable excursion of +0.02%) and drifted to a small loss, suggesting the catalyst was already priced in or simply irrelevant to MSFT's tape. Improvement: Add a rule that the traded ticker must be the primary subject of the catalyst (e.g., the ticker whose price reaction is cited in the headline), or demote partner/counterparty names to STALE unless they show independent confirmation like their own >1% move on the news. Alternatively, require FRESH verdicts to be backed by a minimum expected-impact filter — a deal that moves the counterparty 8% but the mega-cap partner ~0% should never clear the bullish-entry bar for the mega-cap. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.