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🚨 Alert #364 Tue Jul-21 17:12:06

TSMC admits its 'jealous' of memory chipmakers' margins, but is limiting its own price hike because its customers would not survive price increases of 'four to five times'
pcgamer.com · Tue Jul-21 16:59:15 published · Tue Jul-21 17:12:06 alerted · alerted 12m after publish · read at www.pcgamer.com ↗ · other · mat 65

TSMC plans to raise prices for advanced chip fabrication services by 5-15% starting in 2027 due to rising costs and overseas expansion, impacting major customers like Apple and Nvidia.

🎯 Tickers & verdicts

tickerdirectionverdictsince close30mday loday hiintraday px
primary TSM bullishPRICED+4.66%+0.29%414.22426.19
peer MU· unclearPRICED+12.04%+1.76%914.00987.52
AMD bearishPRICED+6.10%+0.07%522.30546.54
AVGO bearishPRICED+2.20%+0.38%380.86390.09
QCOM bearishPRICED+1.92%+0.46%170.47175.68
NVDA bearishPRICED+1.39%-0.15%204.23207.50
counterparty AAPL bearishFRESH+0.75%+0.34%322.30329.43

🧭 Decisions

strategytickeractionsiderationale
S1TSM○ skipverdict PRICED — Δ prev close +4.66% · Δ 30m +0.29% · px 421.05 (prev 402.30) → close +0.88%
S2AAPL● enter▼ shortverdict FRESH, direction bearish -> sell AAPL (other: TSMC plans to raise prices for advanced chip fabrication services by 5-15% starting in 2027 due to rising costs and overseas expansion, impacting major customers like Apple and Nvidia.)
S3MU○ skipdirection unclear for MU → close +0.36%
S4TSM○ skipverdict PRICED — Δ prev close +4.66% · Δ 30m +0.29% · px 421.05 (prev 402.30)

📈 Trades

strategytickersideqtyentryexitP&L $status
S2AAPL▼ short3329.26327.71+4.65closed

Retrospectives

tickermfemaereflection
AAPL S2+0.74%-0.09%

Retro note: The entry treated a 2027 cost headwind as a tradeable near-term catalyst — that's a two-year horizon on a swing trade, so the +$4.65 win (~0.5%) is noise, not validation of the thesis. The max adverse excursion of only -0.09% suggests you got lucky with timing, not that the news actually moved the stock. Improvement: Add a catalyst-horizon filter to the FRESH verdict — news with a stated impact date more than 1-2 quarters out should be downgraded to STALE or ignored, since distant cost changes are typically priced in slowly and don't drive short-term direction.

📖 Glossary

  • S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
  • S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
  • S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
  • S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
  • Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
  • UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
  • PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
  • REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
  • FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
  • materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.

← #363 · #365 → · 📅 2026-07-21 day report