🚨 Alert #3600 Fri Aug-28 19:20:32
Alphabet signed a custom-silicon agreement with Marvell Technology involving warrants tied to future revenue milestones, potentially worth up to $120 billion through fiscal 2033.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary GOOGL | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | +1.85% | +0.11% | 340.64 | 348.75 | |
| NVDA | · unclear | PRICED | -4.18% | -0.50% | 216.97 | 228.68 | |
| AMZN | · unclear | PRICED | +3.59% | +0.02% | 257.06 | 267.47 | |
| MSFT | · unclear | REPRICING | +1.93% | -0.28% | 502.75 | 547.03 | |
| AMD | · unclear | REPRICING | -1.26% | -0.55% | 465.60 | 478.33 | |
| peer AVGO | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.76% | +0.11% | 365.84 | 376.20 | |
| META | · unclear | FRESH | +0.69% | -0.13% | 571.80 | 614.61 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | GOOGL | ○ skip | — | primary long move already absorbed: GOOGL +1.85% since prev close → close -0.05% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AVGO | ○ skip | — | inferred short: materiality 65 below floor 75 → close +0.12% |
| S4 | GOOGL | ● enter | ▲ long | overnight drift: long GOOGL at close, exit next close (partnership: Alphabet signed a custom-silicon agreement with Marvell Technology involving warrants tied to future revenue milestones, potentially worth up to $120 billion through fiscal 2033.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S4 | GOOGL | ▲ long | 2 | 346.81 | 339.82 | -13.98 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL S4 | +0.05% | -3.48% | Signal/timing: The predicted overnight drift never materialized — the stock was already up ~1.8% by entry (the partnership pop had largely happened), and from the fill it only ever gained +0.05% before sliding, so the entry effectively bought the top of the news move. Exit: The mechanical next-close exit captured -2.02%, which was better than the worst unrealized (-3.48%) but there was essentially nothing positive available to capture (+0.05% max). Dominant factor: Timing — entering after a +1.85% pre-entry run-up meant the news was priced in, and the position was a fade of the pop rather than a ride of the drift. Whether the news itself was a valid multi-day signal isn't settled by this one-day window. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.