🚨 Alert #3581 Fri Aug-28 17:50:44
Palantir Technologies reported a significant surge in its Rule of 40 metric to 155% by Q2 2026, driven by accelerating revenue growth and expanding operating margins.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | PLTR | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long PLTR (other: Palantir Technologies reported a significant surge in its Rule of 40 metric to 155% by Q2 2026, driven by accelerating revenue growth and expanding operating margins.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for MSFT → close -0.50% |
| S4 | PLTR | ● enter | ▲ long | overnight drift: long PLTR at close, exit next close (other: Palantir Technologies reported a significant surge in its Rule of 40 metric to 155% by Q2 2026, driven by accelerating revenue growth and expanding operating margins.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | PLTR | ▲ long | 5 | 186.25 | 186.24 | -0.05 | closed |
| S4 | PLTR | ▲ long | 5 | 186.30 | 186.00 | -1.50 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR S1 | +0.45% | -0.34% | Signal: Mildly right — the stock traded up to +0.45% while open, consistent with the bullish call, though the move was small. Timing: Not stale — only +0.13% since prior close at decision time, so entry wasn't chasing an already-completed move. Exit: The dominant failure — the trade closed at essentially breakeven (-$0.05) despite +0.45% of favorable unrealized movement being available, capturing none of it. Bluntly: this was an exit problem; the signal did its (modest) job and the timing was fine, but the exit surrendered all available gains. |
| PLTR S4 | +0.86% | -1.74% | Signal: Wrong — the long overnight-drift call didn't play out; price closed 0.16% below entry, so the predicted upward drift failed to materialize. Timing: Not a late entry — only +0.13% had moved before entry, so the trade wasn't chasing a move already made. Exit: The mechanical next-close exit landed mid-range: it gave back the +0.86% peak that was briefly available but avoided most of the -1.74% trough; the small -$1.50 loss is roughly what a fixed-time exit delivers when the thesis is flat-to-wrong. Dominant factor: signal — the drift edge simply didn't show up on this trade; entry timing and exit mechanics were secondary. Note the news-based rationale (a Q2 2026 Rule of 40 figure) can't be validated from the data here. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.