🚨 Alert #354 Tue Jul-21 16:31:00
US lawmakers have urged President Trump to launch a Section 301 trade investigation into EU digital regulations, arguing they unfairly target American tech giants like Apple, Google, Meta, and Amazon.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AAPL | ● enter | ▼ short | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> sell AAPL (regulatory: US lawmakers have urged President Trump to launch a Section 301 trade investigation into EU digital regulations, arguing they unfairly target American tech giants like Apple, Google, Meta, and Amazon.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for MSFT → close -0.29% |
| S4 | AAPL | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: sell AAPL at close, exit next close (regulatory: US lawmakers have urged President Trump to launch a Section 301 trade investigation into EU digital regulations, arguing they unfairly target American tech giants like Apple, Google, Meta, and Amazon.) [skipped at close: signal conflict — wanted sell but open S4 buy AAPL exiting 2026-07-22] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AAPL | ▼ short | 3 | 328.22 | 327.77 | +1.35 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL S1 | +0.43% | -0.41% | Entry vs. outcome: The rationale was thin — a lawmaker letter urging an investigation is speculative, second-order news for AAPL (and arguably bullish if the US defends US tech from EU regulation), yet it got a FRESH verdict and a directional short. The trade essentially chopped in a ±0.4% band and exited flat (+$1.35), meaning the thesis never expressed itself; you got lucky noise, not edge. Improvement: Tighten the verdict rule so "urged/proposed/called for" headlines cap out at STALE or WATCH — only actual filings, rulings, or enforcement actions with a clear directional read on the named ticker qualify as FRESH. Alternatively, require the direction logic to pass a sanity check: news must plausibly hurt the company shorted, not merely mention it. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.