🚨 Alert #3504 Thu Aug-27 19:20:35

Signal was the dominant failure. The bullish M&A thesis never materialized during the holding window — best unrealized was a negligible +0.03%, so there was essentially no upside to capture at any point. Timing was a minor contributor: entry came after a +0.71% pop from prior close (and a fill ~0.7% above that close), suggesting some of the news reaction was already priced in, though the data can't confirm how much. The exit was reasonable given what was available — the -0.48% realized loss sits between the +0.03% best and -0.84% worst, so the exit didn't leave meaningful gains on the table; there were none.

Signal: Essentially wrong — the predicted overnight upward drift didn't materialize; price closed flat-to-down from entry (-0.04%), and the downside excursion (-2.28%) was far larger than the upside (+0.94%).

Timing: Partially pre-empted — the stock was already +0.71% off the prior close by decision time, and the fill at 164.20 was another ~0.3% above that reference, so entry paid up for a move that had partly occurred.

Exit: The close-to-close exit gave back the modest +0.94% that was briefly available, but that's the mechanical rule, not discretion; the near-flat P&L was actually a decent escape given the -2.28% worst case. Dominant factor: signal — the M&A catalyst simply didn't produce the expected drift.