kingfisher — alert #3373

🚨 Alert #3373 Wed Aug-26 19:30:10

Nvidia Earnings Live: Stock Moves Lower Ahead of Q2 Results

investopedia.com · Wed Aug-26 19:29:05 published · Wed Aug-26 19:30:10 alerted · alerted 1m after publish · read at www.investopedia.com ↗ · earnings · mat 95

Nvidia shares dipped slightly ahead of its highly anticipated Q2 earnings report, where analysts project record revenue of $92.37 billion, while partner stocks like Arista Networks and Lumentum rose in anticipation.

🎯 Tickers & verdicts

ticker	direction	verdict	since close	30m	day lo	day hi
primary NVDA	· unclear	REPRICING	-1.07%	+0.11%	206.48	220.50
SMCI	▲ bullish	PRICED	-2.80%	-1.32%	37.05	38.59
QCOM	▲ bullish	REPRICING	+1.29%	+0.19%	158.86	164.92
AVGO	▲ bullish	FRESH	-0.86%	+0.26%	350.42	362.13
MU	▲ bullish	FRESH	+0.66%	-0.28%	919.61	976.50
peer AMD	▲ bullish	REPRICING	+0.35%	-0.51%	473.00	490.04
TSM	▲ bullish	FRESH	+0.26%	+0.07%	414.93	424.90
ASML	▲ bullish	FRESH	0.00%	+0.25%	1732.77	1785.00

🧭 Decisions

strategy	ticker	action	side	rationale
S1	NVDA	○ skip	—	direction unclear for NVDA → close -0.59%
S2	-	○ skip	—	no counterparty in universe
S3	AMD	● enter	▲ long	verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> long AMD (earnings: Nvidia shares dipped slightly ahead of its highly anticipated Q2 earnings report, where analysts project record revenue of $92.37 billion, while partner stocks like Arista Networks and Lumentum rose in anticipation.)
S4	NVDA	○ skip	—	direction unclear for NVDA

📈 Trades

strategy	ticker	side	qty	entry	exit	P&L $	status
S3	AMD	▲ long	2	480.96	479.41	-3.10	closed

Retrospectives

ticker	mfe	mae	reflection
AMD S3	+0.61%	-0.38%	Signal: Weakly right at best — the bullish call saw only +0.61% peak upside while open, and note the rationale is a sympathy play (Nvidia earnings anticipation), so whether the underlying catalyst validated the thesis isn't determinable from this data. Timing: Entry at 480.96 was ~0.37% above prev close after a -0.51% 30-min pullback — mildly elevated, but not evidence the move was already spent. Exit: This is the dominant factor — the trade closed at -0.32%, essentially at the worst unrealized (-0.38%), surrendering the entire +0.61% that was available; the exit captured nearly the trough of the trade's range.

📖 Glossary

S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.