ca.finance.yahoo.com · Wed Aug-26 18:22:12 published · Wed Aug-26 18:30:46 alerted · alerted 8m after publish · read at ca.finance.yahoo.com ↗ · earnings · mat 65
ASML raised its full-year revenue guidance to €43-45 billion and reported strong Q2 results, positioning itself as a key beneficiary of potential AI spending growth ahead of Nvidia's upcoming earnings report.
verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long ASML (earnings: ASML raised its full-year revenue guidance to €43-45 billion and reported strong Q2 results, positioning itself as a key beneficiary of potential AI spending growth ahead of Nvidia's upcoming earnings report.) [skipped: signal conflict — wanted long, conflict-hold — mat 65 ties incumbent S1 short ASML, incumbent held (strictly higher materiality required to flip)] → close +0.31%
overnight drift: long ASML at close, exit next close (earnings: ASML raised its full-year revenue guidance to €43-45 billion and reported strong Q2 results, positioning itself as a key beneficiary of potential AI spending growth ahead of Nvidia's upcoming earnings report.)
Signal: Partially right — the stock rallied as much as +2.44% while the trade was open, so the predicted upward drift did materialize intraday. Timing: Entry wasn't chasing; price was slightly down (-0.43%) from prior close at decision time, so the move had not already happened. Exit: This is the dominant factor — the mechanical next-close exit gave back the entire +2.44% (~$42) of favorable movement and closed near the worst unrealized level (-1.27%), locking in -$15.48. The trade lost money despite the thesis being directionally correct during the holding period; the fixed exit captured none of what was available.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.
