Mon Aug-31 19:06:01
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #3304 Tue Aug-25 21:00:06
TSMC Jumps Before Nvidia Tests Its Capacity Bet
TSMC shares rose ahead of Nvidia's earnings report as investors anticipate strong AI chip demand will validate TSMC's increased capital spending and revenue growth.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary TSM | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | +1.78% | +0.25% | 414.52 | 418.56 | |
| SMCI | · unclear | PRICED | +9.37% | +0.35% | 35.75 | 38.75 | |
| peer AMD | · unclear | PRICED | +4.85% | -0.21% | 466.91 | 482.30 | |
| MU | · unclear | PRICED | +2.55% | +0.73% | 921.02 | 944.54 | |
| NVDA | · unclear | PRICED | +2.26% | +0.55% | 210.10 | 214.28 | |
| QCOM | · unclear | REPRICING | +1.15% | +0.38% | 159.32 | 161.62 | |
| AVGO | · unclear | FRESH | -0.58% | +0.14% | 355.64 | 363.55 | |
| ASML | · unclear | FRESH | +0.21% | +0.12% | 1736.57 | 1768.27 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ○ skip | — | primary long move already absorbed: TSM +1.78% since prev close → close -0.17% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AMD | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for AMD → close +0.25% |
| S4 | TSM | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: long TSM at close, exit next close (earnings: TSMC shares rose ahead of Nvidia's earnings report as investors anticipate strong AI chip demand will validate TSMC's increased capital spending and revenue growth.) [skipped: post-close — wanted long TSM after the 2026-08-25 session close; close-entry window gone] |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.