🚨 Alert #3228 Tue Aug-25 15:00:31

Signal: Wrong over the holding window — the stock never gained more than +0.31% after entry and drifted down, so the bullish earnings call didn't materialize while the trade was open (whether it played out later isn't shown here).

Timing: The fill at 360.5 was ~0.5% above the prior close despite the decision-time context showing only +0.35%, suggesting a modest chase on already-public earnings news — but the data here can't confirm how much of the anticipated move was already priced in.

Exit: The exit at -1.16% gave back nearly all the way to the worst unrealized (-1.43%) and captured none of the small +0.31% peak; still, the dominant factor is the signal — there was essentially no upside available to capture, so this was a directional miss, not an exit failure.

Signal was the failure. The bullish thesis was a second-hand read-through (Broadcom/Micron earnings applied to GOOGL), and GOOGL never moved in the predicted direction while the trade was open — best unrealized was a negligible +0.02%, so there was essentially no upside at any point. Timing wasn't the issue: the move hadn't already happened at entry (+0.05% since prior close), so this wasn't a late chase. The exit was reasonable given what was available — the -0.61% realized loss sits between the +0.02% best and -0.82% worst, meaning almost nothing better was on offer; whether the thesis would have played out over a longer horizon isn't answerable from this data.