🚨 Alert #3212 Tue Aug-25 13:20:24
Reports indicate Alphabet is leasing significant AI compute capacity from SpaceX's Colossus facility, highlighting a shift in infrastructure dynamics for major tech competitors.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | GOOGL | ● enter | ▼ short | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short GOOGL (other: Reports indicate Alphabet is leasing significant AI compute capacity from SpaceX's Colossus facility, highlighting a shift in infrastructure dynamics for major tech competitors.) [closed early: netted out by outranking S2 long GOOGL decision 12910] |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for MSFT → close +1.47% |
| S4 | GOOGL | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: short GOOGL at close, exit next close (other: Reports indicate Alphabet is leasing significant AI compute capacity from SpaceX's Colossus facility, highlighting a shift in infrastructure dynamics for major tech competitors.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 short lost to mat 85 long (decision 12960) for S4 GOOGL exiting 2026-08-26] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | GOOGL | ▼ short | 2 | 349.98 | 348.46 | +3.04 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL S1 | +0.55% | +0.03% | Signal: Right. The bearish call worked — GOOGL fell from 349.98 to 348.46 while the trade was open, and the position was never meaningfully underwater (worst unrealized +0.03%). Timing: Not chased. Price was up +0.68% on the day at decision time, so the predicted downside move had not already occurred; entry was near the local high, which favored the short. Exit: Good capture. The +3.04 (+0.43%) realized P&L took roughly 80% of the best unrealized (+0.55%), and the exit was triggered mechanically by netting against a competing long decision rather than by the signal itself — so the near-full capture is partly luck of the netting timing, not a deliberate exit. Dominant factor: a correct signal with a favorable entry point; nothing here indicts signal, timing, or exit. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.