🚨 Alert #3093 Mon Aug-24 13:01:30
Nvidia reported Q1 fiscal 2027 revenue of $81.6 billion, an 85% year-over-year increase, while its stock valuation multiples have contracted relative to historical averages.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary NVDA | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.09% | +0.21% | 208.18 | 215.45 | |
| MU | · unclear | PRICED | -2.97% | +0.31% | 888.00 | 941.45 | |
| SMCI | · unclear | REPRICING | -1.88% | +0.77% | 34.15 | 36.55 | |
| peer AMD | · unclear | REPRICING | -1.49% | +0.56% | 452.68 | 468.25 | |
| QCOM | · unclear | FRESH | -0.90% | +0.07% | 156.50 | 159.84 | |
| AVGO | · unclear | FRESH | -0.83% | +0.20% | 358.35 | 366.57 | |
| TSM | · unclear | FRESH | -0.46% | +0.38% | 405.51 | 417.82 | |
| ASML | · unclear | FRESH | -0.24% | +0.28% | 1729.07 | 1762.59 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | NVDA | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long NVDA (earnings: Nvidia reported Q1 fiscal 2027 revenue of $81.6 billion, an 85% year-over-year increase, while its stock valuation multiples have contracted relative to historical averages.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AMD | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for AMD → close -2.25% |
| S4 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: long NVDA at close, exit next close (earnings: Nvidia reported Q1 fiscal 2027 revenue of $81.6 billion, an 85% year-over-year increase, while its stock valuation multiples have contracted relative to historical averages.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 85 long lost to mat 85 short (decision 12500) for S4 NVDA exiting 2026-08-25] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | NVDA | ▲ long | 4 | 214.59 | 208.46 | -24.52 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA S1 | -0.16% | -3.20% | Signal (dominant factor): The bullish call was simply wrong — the trade never went positive (best unrealized only -0.16%) and NVDA fell steadily after entry, so the earnings-driven upside thesis didn't play out in the holding window. Timing: Not the issue — price was essentially flat at entry (-0.09% from prior close, +0.21% last 30m), so the trade wasn't chasing a move that had already occurred. Exit: The -2.86% realized loss sits near the worst unrealized (-3.20%), but with the best point being only -0.16%, there was almost nothing better available to capture; the exit is a symptom of the bad signal, not an independent failure. Whether an earlier stop was possible under the strategy's rules isn't determinable from this data. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.