🚨 Alert #303 Mon Jul-20 20:40:02
Snap Inc. reached a tentative settlement in a social media addiction lawsuit, leaving Meta Platforms as the sole remaining defendant facing an imminent jury trial.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | META | ● enter | ▼ short | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> sell META (regulatory: Snap Inc. reached a tentative settlement in a social media addiction lawsuit, leaving Meta Platforms as the sole remaining defendant facing an imminent jury trial.) |
| S2 | GOOGL | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +1.78% · Δ 30m +0.11% · px 352.95 (prev 346.77) → close -0.23% |
| S3 | - | ○ skip | — | no peer in universe |
| S4 | META | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: sell META at close, exit next close (regulatory: Snap Inc. reached a tentative settlement in a social media addiction lawsuit, leaving Meta Platforms as the sole remaining defendant facing an imminent jury trial.) [skipped at close: signal conflict — wanted sell but open S4 buy META exiting 2026-07-21] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | META | ▼ short | 1 | 649.81 | 646.91 | +2.90 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| META S1 | +0.54% | -0.16% | Entry vs. outcome: The bearish thesis (Meta left as sole defendant facing jury trial) was directionally right but barely — the trade captured +0.45% with max favorable excursion of only +0.54%, meaning this was headline noise, not a repricing event. Litigation risk of this type is well-known and largely priced in; a "FRESH" verdict overweighted the novelty of the Snap settlement versus its actual materiality to Meta's market cap. Improvement: Add a materiality gate to the FRESH verdict for legal/regulatory catalysts — e.g., require an estimable financial exposure above ~1% of market cap or a concrete near-term deadline (trial start within N days) before triggering entry; otherwise downgrade to WATCH. Alternatively, if these low-conviction regulatory trades stay in the system, cap them at reduced size and set a tight profit target (~0.5%), since MFE data shows that's all they tend to give. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.