kingfisher — alert #297

🚨 Alert #297 Mon Jul-20 19:50:28

TSMC Invests $100 Billion for Chips in the U.S

ilounge.com · Mon Jul-20 19:41:58 published · Mon Jul-20 19:50:28 alerted · alerted 8m after publish · read at www.ilounge.com ↗ · other · mat 85

TSMC announced a $100 billion increase in U.S. investment to build additional advanced semiconductor fabrication facilities, raising its total U.S. commitment to $265 billion.

🎯 Tickers & verdicts

ticker	direction	verdict	since close	30m	day lo	day hi
primary TSM	▲ bullish	FRESH	+0.95%	-0.35%	390.66	409.60
AMD	▲ bullish	PRICED	+3.40%	-0.61%	502.09	525.31
AVGO	▲ bullish	PRICED	+2.23%	-0.65%	374.54	383.41
counterparty AAPL	▲ bullish	PRICED	-2.15%	+0.05%	324.24	333.43
peer NVDA	▲ bullish	REPRICING	+0.34%	-0.61%	202.33	207.26
QCOM	▲ bullish	FRESH	+0.05%	-0.45%	170.05	176.17

🧭 Decisions

strategy	ticker	action	side	rationale
S1	TSM	● enter	▲ long	verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> buy TSM (other: TSMC announced a $100 billion increase in U.S. investment to build additional advanced semiconductor fabrication facilities, raising its total U.S. commitment to $265 billion.)
S2	AAPL	○ skip	—	verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -2.15% · Δ 30m +0.05% · px 326.57 (prev 333.74) → close +0.15%
S3	NVDA	● enter	▲ long	verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> buy NVDA (other: TSMC announced a $100 billion increase in U.S. investment to build additional advanced semiconductor fabrication facilities, raising its total U.S. commitment to $265 billion.)
S4	TSM	○ skip	—	overnight drift: buy TSM at close, exit next close (other: TSMC announced a $100 billion increase in U.S. investment to build additional advanced semiconductor fabrication facilities, raising its total U.S. commitment to $265 billion.) [skipped at close: signal conflict — wanted buy but open S4 sell TSM exiting 2026-07-21]

📈 Trades

strategy	ticker	side	qty	entry	exit	P&L $	status
S1	TSM	▲ long	2	402.22	401.92	-0.60	closed
S3	NVDA	▲ long	4	203.44	203.23	-0.84	closed

Retrospectives

ticker	mfe	mae	reflection
TSM S1	+0.26%	-0.45%	The entry treated a headline about TSMC's $100B U.S. investment as "FRESH," but this kind of mega-cap announcement is priced in within minutes — the flat outcome (-0.60 USD, never more than ±0.5% excursion) confirms the trade bought stale news with zero remaining edge. The rationale wasn't wrong about direction so much as irrelevant: the market had already digested it. Concrete fix: tighten the FRESH verdict to require both (a) headline age under ~15 minutes and (b) price not yet moved more than some threshold (e.g., 0.5%) from pre-news levels — otherwise downgrade to STALE and skip. Alternatively, add a minimum expected-move filter so you don't burn commissions and slippage on trades where even the best case was +0.26%.
NVDA S3	+0.04%	-0.52%	The entry treated a TSMC capex headline as a "repricing" catalyst for NVDA, but it's second-order news at best — the stock never moved more than +0.04% in your favor, meaning the market had either already priced it in or didn't consider it NVDA-relevant, and the trade bled to a small loss. The rationale conflated sector-adjacent news with a direct catalyst. Concrete fix: require the REPRICING verdict to only fire on news where the traded ticker is the primary subject (or add a "direct vs. sympathy" tag), and demote sympathy plays to a no-trade or smaller-size WATCH verdict.

ticker

mfe

mae

reflection

TSM S1

+0.26%

-0.45%

The entry treated a headline about TSMC's $100B U.S. investment as "FRESH," but this kind of mega-cap announcement is priced in within minutes — the flat outcome (-0.60 USD, never more than ±0.5% excursion) confirms the trade bought stale news with zero remaining edge. The rationale wasn't wrong about direction so much as irrelevant: the market had already digested it.

Concrete fix: tighten the FRESH verdict to require both (a) headline age under ~15 minutes and (b) price not yet moved more than some threshold (e.g., 0.5%) from pre-news levels — otherwise downgrade to STALE and skip. Alternatively, add a minimum expected-move filter so you don't burn commissions and slippage on trades where even the best case was +0.26%.

NVDA S3

+0.04%

-0.52%

The entry treated a TSMC capex headline as a "repricing" catalyst for NVDA, but it's second-order news at best — the stock never moved more than +0.04% in your favor, meaning the market had either already priced it in or didn't consider it NVDA-relevant, and the trade bled to a small loss. The rationale conflated sector-adjacent news with a direct catalyst. Concrete fix: require the REPRICING verdict to only fire on news where the traded ticker is the primary subject (or add a "direct vs. sympathy" tag), and demote sympathy plays to a no-trade or smaller-size WATCH verdict.

📖 Glossary

S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.