kingfisher — alert #2960

🚨 Alert #2960 Thu Aug-20 17:00:11

Palantir Is Growing Faster Than Almost Anyone Expected. Can the Stock Keep Up?

finance.yahoo.com · Thu Aug-20 16:00:29 published · Thu Aug-20 17:00:11 alerted · alerted 59m after publish · read at finance.yahoo.com ↗ · earnings · mat 85

Palantir reported Q2 FY26 earnings with EPS beating estimates by 46% and U.S. commercial revenue surging 149%, leading to a raised full-year revenue guidance.

🎯 Tickers & verdicts

ticker	direction	verdict	since close	30m	day lo	day hi
primary PLTR	▲ bullish	FRESH	-0.17%	+0.23%	172.20	176.01
AMZN	· unclear	REPRICING	-1.73%	+0.18%	260.11	266.47
GOOGL	· unclear	REPRICING	-1.53%	+0.08%	338.89	344.30
MSFT	· unclear	FRESH	-0.65%	+0.23%	479.99	485.50
peer NVDA	· unclear	FRESH	-0.63%	-0.30%	215.96	219.30
META	· unclear	FRESH	-0.52%	-0.10%	539.90	549.79

🧭 Decisions

strategy	ticker	action	side	rationale
S1	PLTR	● enter	▲ long	verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long PLTR (earnings: Palantir reported Q2 FY26 earnings with EPS beating estimates by 46% and U.S. commercial revenue surging 149%, leading to a raised full-year revenue guidance.)
S2	-	○ skip	—	no counterparty in universe
S3	NVDA	○ skip	—	direction unclear for NVDA → close +0.14%
S4	PLTR	● enter	▲ long	overnight drift: long PLTR at close, exit next close (earnings: Palantir reported Q2 FY26 earnings with EPS beating estimates by 46% and U.S. commercial revenue surging 149%, leading to a raised full-year revenue guidance.)

📈 Trades

strategy	ticker	side	qty	entry	exit	P&L $	status
S1	PLTR	▲ long	5	174.73	174.27	-2.30	closed
S4	PLTR	▲ long	5	174.64	180.24	+28.00	closed

Retrospectives

ticker	mfe	mae	reflection
PLTR S1	+0.92%	-0.33%	Signal: The bullish call was directionally right in the short run — the position reached +0.92% unrealized, well above the -0.33% worst case, so upside was available. Timing: The price context (-0.17% since prev close, +0.23% last 30m) shows no pre-entry surge, though whether the earnings pop had already been priced in on prior days can't be determined from this data. Exit (dominant factor): The trade closed at -0.26% (-$2.30) after peaking at +0.92%, meaning the exit gave back the entire available gain and then some — the loss came from exit execution, not from a wrong directional call.
PLTR S4	+4.35%	-6.39%	Signal: Right — the long call on the earnings beat paid off, with price closing up +3.2% from entry. Timing: The move had not already happened at entry (price was flat, -0.17% vs. prior close), so entry captured the drift as intended — though the -6.39% worst unrealized shows the position endured a severe adverse swing while open. Exit: The next-close exit captured +3.21% against a best unrealized of +4.35%, i.e., most of what was available. Dominant factor: correct signal with a well-timed entry; the mechanical exit gave back only ~1.1pp of the peak. The data here doesn't show when the -6.39% drawdown occurred, so whether the trade was ever near a plausible stop-out can't be settled from this record.

ticker

mfe

mae

reflection

PLTR S1

+0.92%

-0.33%

Signal: The bullish call was directionally right in the short run — the position reached +0.92% unrealized, well above the -0.33% worst case, so upside was available.

Timing: The price context (-0.17% since prev close, +0.23% last 30m) shows no pre-entry surge, though whether the earnings pop had already been priced in on prior days can't be determined from this data.

Exit (dominant factor): The trade closed at -0.26% (-$2.30) after peaking at +0.92%, meaning the exit gave back the entire available gain and then some — the loss came from exit execution, not from a wrong directional call.

PLTR S4

+4.35%

-6.39%

Signal: Right — the long call on the earnings beat paid off, with price closing up +3.2% from entry. Timing: The move had not already happened at entry (price was flat, -0.17% vs. prior close), so entry captured the drift as intended — though the -6.39% worst unrealized shows the position endured a severe adverse swing while open. Exit: The next-close exit captured +3.21% against a best unrealized of +4.35%, i.e., most of what was available.

Dominant factor: correct signal with a well-timed entry; the mechanical exit gave back only ~1.1pp of the peak. The data here doesn't show when the -6.39% drawdown occurred, so whether the trade was ever near a plausible stop-out can't be settled from this record.

📖 Glossary

S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.