🚨 Alert #2909 Wed Aug-19 17:00:37
NVIDIA partners with SB Energy to build a 10-GW AI data center campus in Ohio powered by natural gas, with OpenAI as the anchor tenant and NVIDIA investing $1.5 billion.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary NVDA | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.16% | +0.07% | 217.07 | 221.80 | |
| AVGO | · unclear | PRICED | -4.39% | +0.22% | 358.32 | 380.89 | |
| AMD | · unclear | PRICED | -3.61% | -0.05% | 463.50 | 488.88 | |
| AMZN | · unclear | REPRICING | +1.96% | +0.22% | 258.76 | 267.25 | |
| META | · unclear | REPRICING | +1.59% | +0.36% | 539.95 | 553.68 | |
| peer MSFT | · unclear | REPRICING | +1.44% | +0.94% | 450.97 | 488.84 | |
| MU | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.85% | -0.35% | 918.41 | 966.00 | |
| SMCI | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.56% | -0.19% | 36.06 | 37.68 | |
| TSM | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.33% | -0.08% | 408.53 | 433.37 | |
| GOOGL | · unclear | FRESH | +0.24% | 0.00% | 341.20 | 346.49 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long NVDA (partnership: NVIDIA partners with SB Energy to build a 10-GW AI data center campus in Ohio powered by natural gas, with OpenAI as the anchor tenant and NVIDIA investing $1.5 billion.) [skipped: duplicate theme — already holding S1 long NVDA exiting 2026-08-19] → close -0.95% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for MSFT → close -0.90% |
| S4 | NVDA | ● enter | ▲ long | overnight drift: long NVDA at close, exit next close (partnership: NVIDIA partners with SB Energy to build a 10-GW AI data center campus in Ohio powered by natural gas, with OpenAI as the anchor tenant and NVIDIA investing $1.5 billion.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S4 | NVDA | ▲ long | 4 | 217.25 | 216.56 | -2.76 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA S4 | +1.06% | -0.67% | Signal: Partially right — the position did go up as much as +1.06% while open, so the drift materialized at some point, but by the fixed exit the net move was negative (-0.32%). Timing: The data available at decision time (-0.16% vs prev close, +0.07% last 30m) shows no pre-entry pop, so the move hadn't obviously already happened; however, the fill at 217.25 is ~1.1% below the 219.74 prev close referenced in the context, a gap this data doesn't explain. Exit (dominant factor): The mechanical next-close exit surrendered the entire +1.06% available and closed near the worst unrealized (-0.67%). Bluntly: this was an exit failure — a paper gain of roughly +$9 decayed to -$2.76 because the rule holds to the close regardless of what the drift trade already delivered. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.