Mon Aug-31 19:05:51
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #2800 Tue Aug-18 14:50:07
US tech firms leave China amid decoupling
Google plans to shift smartphone supply chains out of China while Microsoft faces removal of Windows from Chinese government computers amid deepening US-China tech decoupling.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary GOOGL | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.51% | +0.25% | 325.20 | 344.55 | |
| AMD | · unclear | PRICED | -4.11% | -0.77% | 475.34 | 492.00 | |
| META | · unclear | PRICED | -3.60% | -2.14% | 543.70 | 565.22 | |
| AVGO | · unclear | PRICED | -3.13% | -1.19% | 377.11 | 387.46 | |
| NVDA | · unclear | PRICED | -2.20% | -0.05% | 218.93 | 221.15 | |
| QCOM | · unclear | REPRICING | -1.68% | +1.18% | 156.90 | 161.58 | |
| AMZN | · unclear | FRESH | -0.85% | -0.40% | 258.17 | 262.08 | |
| MSFT | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.40% | -0.20% | 479.83 | 496.14 | |
| peer AAPL | · unclear | FRESH | +0.25% | -0.11% | 306.31 | 311.20 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | GOOGL | ○ skip | — | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short GOOGL (regulatory: Google plans to shift smartphone supply chains out of China while Microsoft faces removal of Windows from Chinese government computers amid deepening US-China tech decoupling.) [skipped: signal conflict — wanted short, conflict-hold — mat 65 ties incumbent S1 long GOOGL, incumbent held (strictly higher materiality required to flip)] → close +0.63% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AAPL | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for AAPL → close +1.23% |
| S4 | GOOGL | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: short GOOGL at close, exit next close (regulatory: Google plans to shift smartphone supply chains out of China while Microsoft faces removal of Windows from Chinese government computers amid deepening US-China tech decoupling.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 short lost to mat 85 long (decision 11252) for S4 GOOGL exiting 2026-08-19] |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.