Mon Aug-31 19:08:57
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #2781 Tue Aug-18 13:01:26
Apple's US App Store Commission Revenue Down 18% This Year
Apple's U.S. App Store commission revenue has declined 18% in 2026 due to regulatory changes and the Epic Games injunction allowing external payment links.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AAPL | ○ skip | — | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short AAPL (regulatory: Apple's U.S. App Store commission revenue has declined 18% in 2026 due to regulatory changes and the Epic Games injunction allowing external payment links.) [skipped: signal conflict — wanted short, conflict-hold — mat 65 ties incumbent S1 long AAPL, incumbent held (strictly higher materiality required to flip)] → close +0.86% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | GOOGL | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for GOOGL → close +0.64% |
| S4 | AAPL | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: short AAPL at close, exit next close (regulatory: Apple's U.S. App Store commission revenue has declined 18% in 2026 due to regulatory changes and the Epic Games injunction allowing external payment links.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 short lost to mat 65 long (decision 11376) for S4 AAPL exiting 2026-08-19] |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.