🚨 Alert #2668 Fri Aug-14 20:10:16
Super Micro Computer shares rallied following fourth-quarter results that beat earnings estimates and provided fiscal 2027 revenue guidance significantly above Wall Street expectations.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | SMCI | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> long SMCI (earnings: Super Micro Computer shares rallied following fourth-quarter results that beat earnings estimates and provided fiscal 2027 revenue guidance significantly above Wall Street expectations.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | inferred long: materiality 65 below floor 75 → close -0.06% |
| S4 | SMCI | ● enter | ▲ long | overnight drift: long SMCI at close, exit next close (earnings: Super Micro Computer shares rallied following fourth-quarter results that beat earnings estimates and provided fiscal 2027 revenue guidance significantly above Wall Street expectations.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | SMCI | ▲ long | 25 | 39.73 | 39.92 | +4.75 | closed |
| S4 | SMCI | ▲ long | 25 | 39.88 | 38.59 | -32.25 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMCI S1 | +1.08% | -0.06% | Signal: Correct — the bullish call played out; the position was essentially never underwater (worst -0.06%). Timing: Partially late — entry at 39.73 was already +1.5% above the 39.16 prior close, so a chunk of the post-earnings pop was consumed before the fill, though the stock still had room to run. Exit: The weak point — the trade banked +0.48% (+$4.75) against a best unrealized of +1.08%, capturing less than half of the available move despite near-zero drawdown risk while open. The dominant factor is the exit: a correct, low-risk signal was cut at roughly half its realized potential. |
| SMCI S4 | +2.18% | -5.38% | (reflection unavailable — LLM call failed) |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.