Mon Aug-31 19:08:43
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #2628 Fri Aug-14 15:03:23
Michael Burry Doubles Down on Oracle, Micron Nebius Shorts After Saying It's Like 'Shooting Fish in a Barrel'
Investor Michael Burry disclosed increased short positions in Micron Technology and Nebius Group, predicting an AI compute glut by 2028.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary MU | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +1.87% | +1.01% | 957.90 | 985.58 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -4.23% | -1.91% | 389.13 | 419.80 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +2.80% | +2.66% | 483.65 | 515.70 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +2.48% | +1.08% | 38.79 | 40.34 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.96% | +0.08% | 163.22 | 166.54 | |
| TSM | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.93% | +0.20% | 424.61 | 430.62 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.62% | -0.02% | 1820.94 | 1857.95 | |
| peer NVDA | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +0.08% | -0.59% | 224.71 | 226.98 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | MU | ○ skip | — | primary short contradicts tape: MU +1.87% since prev close → close +0.20% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | inferred short: materiality 65 below floor 75 → close -0.17% |
| S4 | MU | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: short MU at close, exit next close (analyst: Investor Michael Burry disclosed increased short positions in Micron Technology and Nebius Group, predicting an AI compute glut by 2028.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 short lost to mat 65 long (decision 10692) for S4 MU exiting 2026-08-17] |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.