🚨 Alert #2603 Fri Aug-14 13:01:25
Google's chief AI scientist Jeff Dean announced his departure after 27 years to co-found Discovery Loop, causing a significant drop in Alphabet's market capitalization.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | GOOGL | ● enter | ▼ short | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short GOOGL (other: Google's chief AI scientist Jeff Dean announced his departure after 27 years to co-found Discovery Loop, causing a significant drop in Alphabet's market capitalization.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | - | ○ skip | — | no peer in universe |
| S4 | GOOGL | ● enter | ▼ short | overnight drift: short GOOGL at close, exit next close (other: Google's chief AI scientist Jeff Dean announced his departure after 27 years to co-found Discovery Loop, causing a significant drop in Alphabet's market capitalization.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | GOOGL | ▼ short | 2 | 347.64 | 345.47 | +4.34 | closed |
| S4 | GOOGL | ▼ short | 2 | 345.46 | 343.99 | +2.94 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL S1 | +0.89% | -0.65% | Signal: Correct — the bearish call played out, with the short capturing a real downward move (+$4.34 on a 0.62% decline). Timing: The rationale claims the departure had already "caused a significant drop," but price context at decision time showed GOOGL slightly up (+0.10% vs prev close, +0.07% last 30m), and entry filled above prior close — so the move had not already happened by entry; whether the news itself was stale can't be determined from this data. Exit: Good capture — the trade banked 0.62% of a maximum available 0.89% (roughly 70%), well clear of the -0.65% worst drawdown. Dominant factor: a correct directional signal with entry ahead of the move; the trade worked as intended. |
| GOOGL S4 | +0.98% | -1.00% | (reflection unavailable — LLM call failed) |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.