Mon Aug-31 19:08:42
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #2466 Wed Aug-12 17:50:50
Are US export controls really about containing China - or controlling America itself?
A US-China Business Council survey indicates that prolonged export license delays are costing US semiconductor firms billions in lost exports and market share without effectively restricting Chinese access to technology.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary NVDA | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +2.61% | -0.06% | 219.15 | 224.84 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +6.45% | +0.07% | 886.10 | 934.82 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +2.64% | +0.12% | 477.04 | 491.04 | |
| TSM | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +1.43% | -0.20% | 427.00 | 432.60 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.95% | -0.14% | 1808.64 | 1837.51 | |
| peer AVGO | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.80% | +0.18% | 414.75 | 426.56 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.21% | +0.39% | 161.22 | 166.81 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +2.61% · Δ 30m -0.06% · px 223.18 (prev 217.50) → close +0.06% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AVGO | ○ skip | — | inferred short: materiality 65 below floor 75 → close -1.04% |
| S4 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +2.61% · Δ 30m -0.06% · px 223.18 (prev 217.50) |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.