🚨 Alert #230 Mon Jul-20 14:50:00
Tesla shares fell 6.6% alongside declines in major semiconductor stocks including Nvidia, Broadcom, Micron, and AMD amid broader market weakness and SpaceX valuation drops.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSLA | ● enter | ▼ short | verdict REPRICING, direction bearish -> sell TSLA (other: Tesla shares fell 6.6% alongside declines in major semiconductor stocks including Nvidia, Broadcom, Micron, and AMD amid broader market weakness and SpaceX valuation drops.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +2.13% · Δ 30m +0.83% · px 207.13 (prev 202.81) → close -1.86% |
| S4 | TSLA | ● enter | ▼ short | overnight drift: sell TSLA at close, exit next close (other: Tesla shares fell 6.6% alongside declines in major semiconductor stocks including Nvidia, Broadcom, Micron, and AMD amid broader market weakness and SpaceX valuation drops.) |
📈 Trades
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA S4 | +1.44% | -3.68% | Entry vs. outcome: The rule shorted TSLA after a -6.6% down day expecting overnight continuation, but large single-day selloffs in high-beta names like TSLA frequently mean-revert — and it did, bouncing +2.4% by the next close for a -17.60 loss (with -3.68% max adverse excursion vs. only +1.44% favorable). The rationale conflated "bad news day" with "drift will continue," which is empirically the weakest setup for this trade. Improvement: Add a filter excluding shorts when the prior-day decline exceeds ~4-5% (or when the stock closed near its intraday low), since capitulation days skew toward snap-back; alternatively, cap the adverse excursion with a hard -2% stop, which would have cut this loss nearly in half. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.