Mon Aug-31 19:03:52
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #2283 Mon Aug-10 17:28:29
TSMC Is Pumping $64B Into Expansion — Intel Needs a $15B Stock Sale to Do It
TSMC raised its 2026 capital expenditure budget to $60-$64 billion to expand advanced process capacity driven by strong AI demand.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary TSM | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.96% | -0.12% | 417.84 | 425.04 | |
| QCOM | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -2.04% | +0.15% | 162.12 | 169.26 | |
| peer NVDA | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | -1.86% | +0.10% | 217.00 | 224.91 | |
| AMD | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | -1.25% | -0.13% | 469.22 | 483.00 | |
| ASML | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.96% | +0.01% | 1733.02 | 1797.71 | |
| MU | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.38% | +0.38% | 858.82 | 891.70 | |
| AVGO | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.37% | -0.18% | 420.62 | 432.43 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ○ skip | — | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long TSM (guidance: TSMC raised its 2026 capital expenditure budget to $60-$64 billion to expand advanced process capacity driven by strong AI demand.) [skipped: duplicate theme — already holding S1 long TSM exiting 2026-08-10] → close -0.91% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | inferred long contradicts tape: NVDA -1.86% since prev close → close -1.02% |
| S4 | TSM | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: long TSM at close, exit next close (guidance: TSMC raised its 2026 capital expenditure budget to $60-$64 billion to expand advanced process capacity driven by strong AI demand.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 long lost to mat 65 short (decision 9196) for S4 TSM exiting 2026-08-11] |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.