Mon Aug-31 19:06:46
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #2225 Mon Aug-10 14:40:32
Chip equipment stocks rise after Taiwan Semiconductor revenue surges 45%
TSMC reported a 44.7% year-over-year revenue increase for July, driving gains in semiconductor equipment stocks like ASML.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary TSM | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | -0.49% | -0.52% | 417.84 | 425.04 | |
| AMD | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -2.43% | -1.65% | 469.22 | 483.00 | |
| MU | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | -1.66% | +0.06% | 858.82 | 891.70 | |
| peer ASML | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | +1.40% | -1.38% | 1733.02 | 1797.71 | |
| QCOM | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | -0.88% | -0.54% | 162.12 | 169.26 | |
| NVDA | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.58% | -0.01% | 217.00 | 224.91 | |
| AVGO | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.22% | -0.11% | 420.62 | 432.43 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> long TSM (earnings: TSMC reported a 44.7% year-over-year revenue increase for July, driving gains in semiconductor equipment stocks like ASML.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | ASML | ○ skip | — | inferred long: materiality 65 below floor 75 → close -1.60% |
| S4 | TSM | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: long TSM at close, exit next close (earnings: TSMC reported a 44.7% year-over-year revenue increase for July, driving gains in semiconductor equipment stocks like ASML.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 long lost to mat 65 short (decision 9196) for S4 TSM exiting 2026-08-11] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ▲ long | 2 | 417.14 | 420.02 | +5.76 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSM S1 | +2.03% | -0.04% | Signal: Right — the bullish call played out, with the position never going meaningfully underwater (worst -0.04%) and rising to +2.03% at peak. Timing: Fine — price was slightly down at entry (-0.49% from prev close), so the trade wasn't chasing a move that had already occurred. Exit: This is the dominant factor — the exit at +0.69% (+$5.76) captured only about a third of the +2.03% (~$17) best unrealized gain, giving back most of what the correct signal produced. Blunt diagnosis: good signal, adequate timing, weak exit. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.