🚨 Alert #2173 Fri Aug-07 17:40:30
Taiwan is conducting major military drills involving simulated evacuation of its president amid increased Chinese military activity, raising geopolitical risks for the island's semiconductor industry.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary TSM | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.27% | -0.03% | 413.31 | 424.54 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +3.89% | +0.38% | 161.10 | 168.30 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +3.87% | -0.82% | 29.80 | 31.38 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.70% | -0.81% | 477.05 | 504.28 | |
| peer NVDA | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +1.63% | -0.36% | 219.52 | 224.71 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +1.58% | -0.24% | 1722.32 | 1768.17 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.35% | -0.90% | 850.01 | 916.35 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.87% | -0.24% | 421.87 | 430.05 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ● enter | ▼ short | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short TSM (regulatory: Taiwan is conducting major military drills involving simulated evacuation of its president amid increased Chinese military activity, raising geopolitical risks for the island's semiconductor industry.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +1.63% · Δ 30m -0.36% · px 222.57 (prev 218.99) → close +0.49% |
| S4 | TSM | ● enter | ▼ short | overnight drift: short TSM at close, exit next close (regulatory: Taiwan is conducting major military drills involving simulated evacuation of its president amid increased Chinese military activity, raising geopolitical risks for the island's semiconductor industry.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ▼ short | 2 | 419.00 | 418.65 | +0.70 | closed |
| S4 | TSM | ▼ short | 2 | 419.02 | 420.11 | -2.18 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSM S1 | +0.17% | -0.43% | Signal: Directionally right but only trivially — TSM drifted down 0.08% from entry, a noise-level move that doesn't validate the geopolitical thesis; the stock never sold off meaningfully (max favorable move just +0.17%, and it went +0.43% against the short at worst). Timing: Price was up only +0.27% from prior close and flat over the last 30 minutes at decision time, so there's no evidence the anticipated drop had already occurred — the drop simply never materialized at size. Exit: The +$0.70 exit captured about half of the tiny best-case (+0.17% ≈ +$1.42 unrealized), which is fine execution given nothing was available. Dominant factor: weak signal — the "FRESH" bearish catalyst produced no real move, and the small profit is noise, not thesis confirmation. |
| TSM S4 | +0.51% | -1.57% | Signal: wrong. The geopolitical-risk short predicted a decline, but TSM drifted up overnight (entry 419.02 → exit 420.11), with the worst unrealized move (-1.57%) far exceeding the best (+0.51%) — the market didn't price the Taiwan drill news as a negative. Timing: not the problem — price was only +0.27% off prior close at entry, so no meaningful move had been missed or chased. Exit: reasonable given the setup — the -0.26% realized loss sits well inside the worst unrealized drawdown, and the fixed next-close exit avoided most of the damage; the dominant factor is simply that the directional thesis was wrong. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.