Mon Aug-31 19:04:19
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🚨 Alert #2143 Fri Aug-07 13:40:26
Why The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) Plunged 21% in July
The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) dropped 21% in July due to profit-taking after a massive rally, bearish commentary from Michael Burry, and forced selling from the collapse of the leveraged hedge fund Situational Awareness.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary NVDA | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +0.99% | +0.52% | 219.52 | 224.71 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +3.35% | +1.42% | 850.01 | 916.35 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +3.23% | +1.10% | 29.80 | 31.38 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +3.12% | +0.88% | 1722.32 | 1768.17 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +2.32% | +0.94% | 477.05 | 504.28 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +1.80% | +0.99% | 161.10 | 168.30 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +1.63% | +0.58% | 421.87 | 430.05 | |
| TSM | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +1.13% | +0.68% | 413.31 | 424.54 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict REPRICING, direction bearish -> short NVDA (analyst: The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) dropped 21% in July due to profit-taking after a massive rally, bearish commentary from Michael Burry, and forced selling from the collapse of the leveraged hedge fund Situational Awareness.) [skipped: signal conflict — wanted short, netted, outranked by S1 long NVDA mat 75 (new mat 65)] → close +1.13% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | - | ○ skip | — | no peer in universe |
| S4 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: short NVDA at close, exit next close (analyst: The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) dropped 21% in July due to profit-taking after a massive rally, bearish commentary from Michael Burry, and forced selling from the collapse of the leveraged hedge fund Situational Awareness.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 short lost to mat 75 long (decision 8556) for S4 NVDA exiting 2026-08-10] |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.