🚨 Alert #2109 Thu Aug-06 19:10:43
App developers filed an opposition brief against Apple's motion to dismiss a US complaint alleging violation of an injunction regarding App Store commission structures.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AAPL | ○ skip | — | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short AAPL (regulatory: App developers filed an opposition brief against Apple's motion to dismiss a US complaint alleging violation of an injunction regarding App Store commission structures.) [skipped: duplicate theme — already holding S1 short AAPL exiting 2026-08-06] → close +0.23% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | GOOGL | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for GOOGL → close +0.28% |
| S4 | AAPL | ● enter | ▼ short | overnight drift: short AAPL at close, exit next close (regulatory: App developers filed an opposition brief against Apple's motion to dismiss a US complaint alleging violation of an injunction regarding App Store commission structures.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S4 | AAPL | ▼ short | 3 | 312.63 | 313.95 | -3.96 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL S4 | +0.64% | -0.69% | Signal: wrong. The short predicted overnight downside on the regulatory news, but AAPL rose from 312.63 to 313.95 (-0.42% against the position), so the directional call failed. Timing: not the issue. Price was only +0.35% above prior close at decision time — the adverse move happened after entry, not before it. Exit: gave back what was available. The position was briefly +0.64% in the money, but the mechanical next-close exit landed near the worst unrealized (-0.69%), so essentially all the transient favorable move was surrendered. The dominant factor is the wrong directional signal; the exit merely locked in a loss close to the maximum drawdown seen while open. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.