verdict REPRICING, direction bearish -> short AAPL (regulatory: OpenAI filed a legal response dismissing Apple's trade secret theft lawsuit as meritless and motivated by Apple's failures in AI integration.)
overnight drift: short AAPL at close, exit next close (regulatory: OpenAI filed a legal response dismissing Apple's trade secret theft lawsuit as meritless and motivated by Apple's failures in AI integration.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 short lost to mat 65 short (decision 8436) for S4 AAPL exiting 2026-08-07]
Signal: Wrong over the holding period — AAPL rose ~0.33% against the short, and the best unrealized gain was only +0.27%, so the bearish repricing thesis never materially played out. Timing: The data doesn't show a missed move — price was only +0.19% off the prior close at decision time (with a slight -0.53% dip in the prior 30m), so entry didn't chase an already-completed drop. Exit: Poor within what was available — the trade closed at -0.33%, near the worst unrealized (-0.40%), having given back the small +0.27% favorable excursion. The dominant factor is signal: the direction call was simply wrong, and the exit near the lows only compounded a modest loss.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.
